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MLB: Hot betting system backs hot-hitting Sox2010-07-29
The White Sox are white hot when playing in Chicago, no doubt about it. They have been almost unbeatable at home over the last couple of months, winning 16 of their last 17 games at US Cellular Field. On Wednesday, they’ll look to continue that surge when they play the third of a 4-game series versus the Mariners. Chicago is a -155 favorite according to Sportsbook.com at last check, and based upon a powerful StatFox betting system, should be listed at a much higher price. Let’s take a look at the game and the system.
No team has been better the last seven weeks than the White Sox (55-44), who are a major league-best 31-11 since June 9. They have gone from 9 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central to a one-game lead on Minnesota.
Almost all of those 11 losses have come on the road, as Chicago has won nine straight and 16 of its last 17 at home.
Their dominance over the Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field extends back much further than that. In fact, with Tuesday’s 11-0 victory, Chicago improved to 25-7 at U.S. Cellular Field against Seattle (39-62) since 2004.
The last-place Mariners have lost 18 of their last 24 games.
Red hot Mark Buehrle (9-8, 3.96 ERA) will try to pitch the White Sox to their first 10-game home win streak since April 15-May 4, 2006. The Chicago ace started slowly this season, losing five straight decisions at one point, but has rebounded to go 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA in his last eight starts.
Buehrle is 6-0 with a 3.34 ERA in eight home starts versus Seattle.
Jason Vargas (6-5, 2.94) looks to continue his consistent pitching for the Mariners. He ranks among the top 10 in the AL in ERA and has produced quality starts in eight of his last 10 outings.
Tonight’s top betting angle comes straight from the FoxSheets Power Searches on a query titled “Current Season Situations With the Highest Winning Percentages”. It reads as follows:
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (64-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +40.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -131.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-9, +18.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (199-108, +43.3 units).
As you can see, this system is almost as hot in 2010 as the White Sox are at home. Chicago will put its own 9-game home winning streak on the line and look to give our feature system a 9-0 start when it goes head-to-head with Seattle starting at 8:10 PM ET.
MLB Series Betting- L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers
2010-06-11
In Southern California, it is simply known as the I-5 Freeway Series when the Angels and Dodgers meet annually in interleague action. The interstate is known for its sprawling expanse and both teams play has resembled this roadway. Early in the season both Los Angeles’ teams played like they were stuck in neutral playing very ordinary baseball. However recently, both are like a car that just cleared an accident area, where the road opens up and you can punch the accelerator and take out off. It makes for what should be an interesting 3-game set in Dodger-ville. The hosts are -180 series favorites according to Sporsbook.com.
The Dodgers (36-24, +5.8 units) have been the best team in baseball since May 9, posting a 23-7 record to storm back and recapture first place in the NL West. The offense has been relatively steady most of the season and ranks fifth in the National League; however it has been its pitching that has been the difference-maker. They have held opposing teams to three runs or less in 18 of last 30 games and moved from 14th to 8th in ERA in the senior circuit, now at 3.95. Joe Torre’s club doesn’t exactly have a collection of Golden Glover’s; nevertheless they are 15-3 after two straight games where they committed zero errors this season.
The Angels (33-30, +2.3) lost key members in the offseason via free agency and were expected to contend, not control the AL West in 2010. They met the lower expectations set for them playing below .500 since the third game of the season and even their most thrilling moment of the campaign turned into calamity, when their best hitter Kendry Morales fractured his fibula jumping on home plate after smacking walk-off grand slam home run. Baseball experts on ESPN and MLB immediately wrote off the Halos, but they forgot about the manager, Mike Scioscia. Instead of folding, the Angels have persevered; winning 10 of last 13, to move into second place, 1.5 games behind Texas. They will start this series 15-3 in road games after six consecutive starts versus division rivals.
The Blue Crew will have a decided pitching edge in the opener, with Chad Billingsley (6-3, 3.80 ERA) meeting Joel Pineiro (4-6, 5.23). Billingsley is 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in his last six starts and versus the Angels disharmonious bullpen (4.88, 1.664 WHIP), the home team is 10-1 against a horrible pen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last two seasons.
Pineiro snapped a personal three-game losing streak, but was far from impressive in permitting nine hits and four runs over six innings at Seattle in 9-4 triumph and is a disheveled 0-8 in interleague action the last two years. (Team's Record) It stands to reason for the Dodgers to be -164 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com in the opener.
Game 1 Edge: Dodgers
If the term “opposites attract”, these teams are a perfect match. Like all cities that support two baseball organizations, when one team is home the other is on the road. That is the case here as the Dodgers are 8-2 on their longest homestand of the season with three games left. This in turn has the Angels away from the Big A for 14 road contests and they’ve held up well with 8-3 record thus far.
Interleague baseball seems to bring out the best and worst of each squad, as the team from Anaheim has one of the best records since 2007 with 39-18 (+17.6) mark. The team playing in Chavez Ravine is among the weakest in baseball at 21-30 (-11.75).
Scott Kazmir (5-5, 5.40) will take the ball for the Halos, having won three of his last four starts. He’s spotted his pitches better of late, but command is his worst enemy. After having a better than 2-to-1 ratio of strikes and walks for his career, he has 39 punch-outs and handed out 27 free passes this year. He’ll be relying on his club’s history that shows 19-7 interleague road record coming into the series.
John Ely (3-2, 3.00) might not throw in the high 90’s, however has displayed pitching acumen by throwing strikes and staying out of trouble. His pinpoint location has kept his team in games and the Dodgers are 6-2 when Ely starts.
Game 2 Edge: Dodgers
Jered Weaver (5-3, 3.20) seldom has two poor outings in a row and he was rocked for 12 hits and six runs his last time out in Oakland. Weaver is tied for the AL lead in K’s with 89 and is 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. He’s been especially fond of Dodger Stadium with a 0.55 ERA in three outings and the Angels are 14-9 in day games this season.
Rookie Carlos Monasterios (3-0, 2.27) was forced into duty when Vicente Padilla went on disabled list and the Dodgers were really hurting for a fifth starter. Despite almost no experience at this level, Monasterious has thrown better than anyone could have imagined and his .215 batting average allowed is the lowest among first year pitchers with two or more starts in a season full of rookie pitchers making big introductions. The Dodgers began this series 23-10 at home.
Game 3 Edge: Angels
This should be an entertaining series with anything possible. The teams have split 12 encounters the last two seasons with the road club taking the series each time. The Dodgers are playing better baseball, have the better bullpen (Closer Jonathan Broxton has converted 15 straight save opportunities) and have been exceptional at home. If the games are tight, the team in the white uniforms is 15-6 in one run affairs, including 9-1 at home. Give the edge to the team from L.A., the one closer to Hollywood.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Angels +140, Dodgers -180. StatFox Edge Pick: Dodgers
MLB Series Betting- Minnesota at Detroit
2009-08-07
For most of the season, the Minnesota Twins have been a floundering baseball club, not being good enough to run neck and neck with Detroit in the AL Central, nor bad enough to hang out with Cleveland and Kansas City. This weekend in the Motor City, they will have chance to change people’s perception of them, including their own. The Tigers are a -170 betting line favorite at Sportsbook.com. Here’s a look at each game and predictions for the pivotal set.
The Twins (53-55, -7.8 units) have lost five of six and are undernourished 22-32 on the road, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Minnesota is in third place, 4 ½ games behind Detroit and knows the significance of turning season around quickly. “They’re all important when you’re chasing,” Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said. “It’s in our division and on the road. You don’t want to get too far behind or too far under .500.”
Detroit (57-50, +2.2 units) on the other hand has been a punishing home team. The Tigers are 34-17 at Comerica Park, which ties them for the fourth best home record with Tampa Bay and they are very profitable +12.4 units. Besides wanting to create distance between Central Division rivals, Detroit wants to get Armando Galarraga (5-10, 5.22 ERA) pointed in opposite direction. Galarraga has lost his last three decisions (Tigers have fallen five straight when Galarraga starts), having last won on June 30 against Oakland. "No pitcher in the history of the game can hide from the fact that you've got to throw strikes," manager Jim Leyland said in reference to his right-hander. "Every pitching coach talks about the same thing: Strike one. There's nothing new about that, but there's also a lot of truth to that.” Detroit is a -110 home favorite at Sportsbook.com with total of 9.5, with Galarraga and teammates 2-12 in night games.
Minnesota will counter with Anthony Swarzak (3-4, 4.25), who was among the pitchers torn up by the Los Angeles Angels last weekend. Swarzak is a rookie and though his numbers are not overly impressive, he’s 2-0, with 2.22 ERA pitching on the road in four starts (Twins 3-1). With Minnesota off a tough 2-1 loss yesterday at Cleveland, they are 8-0 after losing by a single run versus a division rival over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Minnesota
Saturday’s contest will have the Tigers as large chalk favorites and they come into this series 28-12 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The main reason for being tagged with big number is because Jason Verlander (12-5, 3.29) is Detroit’s starting pitcher. Twins hitters don’t figure to have an easy time with hard throwing right-hander. Those swinging from the right side of the plate are batting only .223 against Verlander and he has 1.66 ERA this season in home games. Overall, Verlander and Detroit are 22-4 at Comerica against teams with losing records.
With Minny starting this series with 28-10 record after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last two years, they will need Glen Perkins (6-7, 5.95) to do a 180-degree turn, after being shelled for season highs in runs (9) and hits (12) by the Halos. Perkins usually does a descent job once thru the batting order, but because he lacks an “out’ pitch, hitters are very comfortable the second or third time around. The only bright news is Perkins and the Twins are 10-4 when he hurls in Game 2’s. Totals players should be aware 10 of those 14 starts have gone OVER.
Game 2 Edge: Detroit
The scheduled Sunday afternoon pitchers are Scott Baker (9-7, 4.59) for Minnesota and Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 2.93) for Detroit. Baker was horrible to start 2009, but has emerged as Gardenhire’s ace since June. Baker is 7-1 since June 4, allowing three or less runs in 10 of his last dozen starts. Watch the money line on him since Baker and the Twinkies are 1-6 as underdogs.
Washburn was brought in to solidify Tigers staff and he suffered rocky first game wearing the “D” for a lid, giving up six runs in just over five innings against Baltimore in taking the loss. From pitching effectiveness perspective, he’s on pace to have career low ERA and could have his most wins since 2002 World Series season with the Angels (18). Left-handed batters are hitting only .184 against him, which could neutralize the M&M boys from Minnesota. Washburn is 4-2 in day games (team’s record) with 2.29 ERA and he’s on the right team with the Tigers 24-14 playing without lights.
Game 3 Edge: Detroit
Because our guest selectors have been performing so well with 4-0 record, we’ll bring in another, professional gambler named Sal to make the pick.
“It’s tempting to pick the Twins because they have won six of eight against Detroit and have winning record (11-9) at Comerica the last three years. Verlander will dominate Game 2 for Detroit. Game 1 is likely an Over with two pitchers that will be lucky to see the sixth (inning). I’ll give the Twins the nod in the opener. This brings it down to Sunday. As much as I like Baker right now, the Tigers play so well at home and the Twins stink as visitors. Washburn settles down with new club and Detroit wins the series.”
Sportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota +135, Detroit -170
StatFox Edge Pick: Detroit
2009 Record – 6-9
MLB: Minnesota’s Twins has bettors feasting
2009-06-17
Minnesota has won the World Series twice, in 1987 and again in 1991, before free agency removed the age of innocence. The Twins are and always will be a small market team, but it has never stopped them from competing and they continue to be in the thick of the race in the AL Central, virtually every year. Another characteristic of Minnesota baseball is their dominance in interleague play. They’ll play another game of that variety tonight vs. Pittsburgh, and will be backed by a powerful betting system. Read on for more about that angle then go over to the LIVE ODDS page for the latest price.
The Twins have the second-best record in baseball since this began in 1997, trailing only the New York Yankees. With last’s night’s 8-2 win over Pittsburgh, Minnesota is 6-1 in interleague play in 2009, which follows the pattern they has established over the last 5+ years.
Since 2004, the Twinkies are tasty 66-31 (68 percent) against their National League counterparts and in the last three years, they are Richardo Montalban “Marvelous” 31-12, 72 percent. This season they are crushing those from the senior circuit by 3.6 runs per game (6 to 2.4).
It’s really no mystery that leads to Minnesota’s success against the National League, the teams from the other league can’t hit Twins pitching. On the season, all teams score 4.6 runs per game against manager Ron Gardenhire’s club; however the NL lineups have scored only 2.4 per game, which is noted by them allowing nine runs in last four interleague contests, all victories.
With catcher Joe Mauer’s four base-knocks leading the16-hit parade, the Twins won handily last night and Mauer’s sick .429 batting average will start to make people take notice, even if it’s only the middle of June.
Sportsbook.com has the Twins as -183 money line favorites against Pittsburgh and why not, as they fall into one of the best super situations that has occurred all year.
Play On all favorites with money line of -175 to -250, after allowing four runs or less, four straight games, against opponent after a loss by four runs or more.
That is a simple and straight forward system with astonishing results. Over the last five seasons, there have been 51 winners out of 57 situations (89.5 percent). The winning margin has been almost as good as Minnesota’s in interleague action at 2.9 per game.
Let’s not also forget about how Minnesota plays when they receive exceptional pitching, with 7-0 record after allowing four runs or less six straight games. They will start Francisco Liriano (2-7, 5.99 ERA), who is finally showing signs of turning season around, allowing four total runs in last two starts, which is more than he can say for his mound opponent Ian Snell. The Pirates right-hander is 1-7 with 5.25 ERA and hasn’t won since April 18. In fact, Snell and the Bucs are 2-14 in road games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.
No doubt the price is a trifle high on Minnesota; nevertheless, the results suggest another Twins killing.
MLB:Tampa Bay Underdog as Series Leader
2008-10-14
Unemployment is way up, foreclosures are at record highs, banks are failing at rates not seen since the 1930’s and brand name companies like Lehman Bros. have gone out of business. When you take this all into consideration and realize the Tampa Bay Rays are two wins away from playing in the World Series, somehow, someway this all makes sense on some level.
Tampa Bay crushed Boston 9-1, pounding out four home runs in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. The Rays have now won three games in a row at Boston, after winning a total of four contests in the previous three years in Beantown. As tough-minded as the Red Sox are, seeing their ace Jon Lester hammered has to be disconcerting. Throw in the fact the road team that won Game 3 in the ALCS to take the series lead, has advanced to the World Series, six of the last eight times.
Tampa Bay manager is doing everything to keep his team focused on the moment. "It's one game," Maddon said. "Regardless of if we won or lost tonight, I would have talked about the same thing, because I believe it. Because it is about one game at a time and I know they believe that. And I think we've learned that lesson this year also.” The Rays are 23-11 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.
Boston has a true wild card situation, starting knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13 ERA), who has not started a game in over two weeks. What makes Wakefield a risky venture is similar to the very nature of the knuckleball. In Wakefield’s last 11 starts, he surrendered four or more runs five times. In his six other starts he allowed three or less runs. The Red Sox are 36-16 at Fenway Park when Wakefield is the starter. The 42-year pitcher is 17-5 against Tampa Bay the last 11 seasons.
The Rays have been dialing up the long ball and are 15-6 on the road against right-handed pitchers. They will start Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34) who closed out the divisional series against Chicago. Tampa Bay has won 21 of his 33 starts this season.
Sportsbook.com has Boston as a -137 money line favorite with a total of Ov9. The Red Sox are 18-6 after a loss by four runs or more and 31-12 after scoring one run or less. Tampa Bay is an alarming 1-13 in road games after scoring seven runs or more two straight games.
Boston will be reliant on Wakefield to come up with big performance and they are 14-2 when he starts off a loss. This is isn’t the old days when Tampa Bay would roll over and could be beaten like a hung rug. The Rays are 20-12 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better this season.
First pitch is set for 8:07 Eastern in TBS.
StatFox Power Line – Boston -131
MLB: Oakland-Toronto; two cold teams, one hot system
2008-08-04
Looking back to just last week, postseason prospects looked much brighter for the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays. However, with Oakland having lost nine of its last 10 games and Toronto having dropped five of seven, both teams now find themselves in dire straits heading into their 4-game series opener on Monday night. The host Blue Jays are a heavy -190 favorite behind Roy Halladay, and are backed by an incredible 93% winning StatFox Super Situation.
Oakland’s recent woes have been literally, offensive. The A’s failed to reach the 4-run mark in either of their last two series’ against Kansas City and Boston. As a result, they were swept in both matchups. Against Halladay, it’s hard to believe that those bats will suddenly heat up overnight. In fact, this problem has become commonplace for Oakland in 2008:
OAKLAND is 9-24 (-18.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Tonight they’ll send left-hander Greg Smith (5-10, 4.04 ERA) to the hill. Smith has lost his last three times out. He is truly undeserving of the poor record however, having been the victim of awful run support all year long. In fact, he goes into this game with an unusual 11-0 UNDER mark in night games, his team having lost those games by an average score of 2.4-3.3. With info like this on the table, not surprisingly, tonight’s contest is accompanied by a posted total of Under 7.5 (-135) at Sportsbook.com.
The Blue Jays will turn to ace-Halladay to stop the bleeding. He boasts a perfect mark against poor offensive teams of late: HALLADAY is 11-0 (+11.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Overall in ’08, Halladay is 12-8 with a WHIP of 1.040 and ERA of 2.85, all highly respectable numbers.
Toronto has also struggled offensively this season but did show signs of breaking out in a 3-game weekend series just completed in Texas. The Jays crossed the plate 18 times in those three games, though winning just the Saturday contest. For the season, Toronto is batting .259, and the combination of that average, today’s hefty price tag, and Smith’s decent ERA numbers mean that Toronto is in a historically awesome spot to play. The particular StatFox Super Situation of note reads as follows:
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, in the second half of the season.
(40-3 since 1997.) (93%, +34.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -188.3
The average score in these games was: Team 6, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2, +12.2 units).
With a winning percentage of 93% since ’97, and a +3.3 average run differential per game in those 43 contests, it’s hard to envision anything other than a comfortable win for Halladay and the Blue Jays.