Home

Sport betting MLB

Thanks for stopping by Sport betting MLB, the place for baseball handicappers.

Thanks for stopping by sportbettingmlb.com, the place for baseball handicappers.

This site was created to provide daily content for those that like betting on baseball. Whether you are looking for the latest odds or an analysis of a pitching match-up, this is the place that provides all of that information and more.

If you are interested in increasing your winning picks, this site is a must read during the MLB season.

Latest News

MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
2008-08-13

The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.

The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.

As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.

C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.

The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:

* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)

San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.

On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.

Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:

* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.

MLB: When bad teams are favored
2008-08-13

For every great matchup on a given Major League Baseball day, there are two less appealing contests. In a bettor’s world, all of the games mean the same, so ignoring the likes of Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, or Baltimore-Cleveland can prove damaging to one’s bankroll. This is especially the case on days like Tuesday, when the Reds and Indians will be playing as favorites. It seems though that the public has taken notice, with more folks at Sportsbook.com betting the underdogs in early action. Though both games boast similar lines, they set up rather differently. Take a look.

In Pittsburgh, the Reds are favored for one reason: Edison Volquez. Oddsmakers are clearly giving Volquez the benefit of the doubt here, despite the fact that his club has dropped nine of its L10 games while the Pirates have played with heart over the past week. In fact, just yesterday, Pittsburgh rallied for three runs in the ninth inning to upend the heavily favored Mets in an afternoon contest at Shea. Ironically, Volquez’s own recent struggles have mirrored the teams, as he has been hit hard in his last three outings, allowing 15 runs in 15-1/3 innings. He has also lost twice to Pittsburgh in as many outings this season.

Also seemingly being ignored here is the fact that Cincinnati has been awful on the road at 21-36, while Pittsburgh has defended its home field well, going 32-26 thus far for +7.2 units.

Overall for the season, Pittsburgh leads the head-to-head series, 6-3, including 3-0 at home. Two of the wins came in the most recent matchups in early July, leading to a strong StatFox Super Situation for tonight’s game:

Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CINCINNATI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record. (96-58 since 1997.) (62.3%, +46.8 units. Rating = 3*)

Game time for this contest is 7:10 PM ET. Cincinnati is a questionable -110 favorite, and the total is set at U8.5 -125.

In the other aforementioned contest, Cleveland hosts Baltimore and opened as a -125 favorite in the contest. The Indians have played better of late, winning four straight games. In fact, one more win tonight will match their season high winning streak. It remains to be seen whether or not its too early to start jumping back on this bandwagon. The Tribe remains 11-games under .500 and 12-1/2 games out of first in the A.L. Central Division, behind all four other teams.

Yesterday’s 13-8 win by Cleveland in the opening game of this series actually sets up Cleveland for a number of powerful trend scenarios. Here are a few of those:

BALTIMORE is 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND is 19-3 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 6.7, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

Tonight’s pitchers are a pair of left-handers in Garrett Olson for the O’s and Jeremy Sowers for the Indians. Neither pitcher warrants a whole lot of respect from oddsmakers and each averages less than 5-2/3 innings per start, so this one might wind up being determined in the late innings.

StatFox Edges: Pittsburgh, Cleveland

MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08

Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.

On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.

At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.

Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.

Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.

Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)

WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)

ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)

BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)

TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)

MLB: Anemic A’s up Against Stellar System
2008-08-07

All baseball teams go thru droughts during the course of a major league baseball season and can’t swing the bat and hit a beach ball thrown five feet from them. In Oakland, it’s not a slump, it’s an epidemic. The Athletics have plummeted faster then a watermelon thrown off a roof top by David Letterman for The Late Show.

The A’s have lost nine in a row (-9.95 units), as Oakland’s slumping bats haven’t scored more than three runs in any game in this streak. On July 11th, the Athletics trailed the Los Angeles Angels by four games and were in the thick of pennant contention for the division and wild card races. After losing 18 of next 20, they are closer to last place Seattle than to the heavenly scent of first place the Angels hold.

Oakland has averaged 2.65 runs while hitting .214 in its last 20 games, and Justin Duchscherer (10-7, 2.33, 0.956 WHIP) has been the unfortunate recipient on four such occasions during this stretch, even though the right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his outings. One more loss makes it an even 10 defeats, which would be worst stretch since April 19-30, 1994, when they lost a dozen straight.

Toronto in turn seeks first ever four-game sweep of odious Oakland and sends A.J. Burnett up the hill to complete the task. Burnett (13-9, 4.57, 1.437) has won five of last six starts, allowing two or less runs in four of those opportunities. Though lacking a superlative home earned run average (4.86), Burnett and the Blue Jays have won 8 of his 11 starts at the Rogers Centre. Sportsbook.com has established Toronto as -109 money line favorites, with total Un7.

All of these factors roll together like making bread, setting up the possibility of earning real quality dough from a FoxSheets Super System.

PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND), who are bad AL offensive team, scoring 4.2 runs per game or less, against a team with a very good bullpen (3.33 ERA or less), with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start.

This system is a dazzling 26-6, 81.2 percent since 2004 and has many other supporting angles. Toronto is 14-4 vs. a starting pitcher like Duchscherer, who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season and is even better 12-1 in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two years.

The Blue Jays are 15-5 against the money line after allowing three runs or less three straight games this season, thanks to a bullpen that has the best ERA in baseball at 2.97, potentially further diminishing the chances of the Athletics busting out of horrendous hitting period. Oakland is 3-18 on the road after scoring four runs or less four straight games since the beginning of 2006 campaign.

Opening pitch is scheduled for 7:07 Eastern and can be seen in local markets and on MLB.TV. Hard not to ride such a streak against the free-falling A’s.