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MLB: Oakland-Toronto; two cold teams, one hot system

Looking back to just last week, postseason prospects looked much brighter for the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays. However, with Oakland having lost nine of its last 10 games and Toronto having dropped five of seven

2008-08-04

Looking back to just last week, postseason prospects looked much brighter for the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays. However, with Oakland having lost nine of its last 10 games and Toronto having dropped five of seven, both teams now find themselves in dire straits heading into their 4-game series opener on Monday night. The host Blue Jays are a heavy -190 favorite behind Roy Halladay, and are backed by an incredible 93% winning StatFox Super Situation.

Oakland’s recent woes have been literally, offensive. The A’s failed to reach the 4-run mark in either of their last two series’ against Kansas City and Boston. As a result, they were swept in both matchups. Against Halladay, it’s hard to believe that those bats will suddenly heat up overnight. In fact, this problem has become commonplace for Oakland in 2008:

OAKLAND is 9-24 (-18.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Tonight they’ll send left-hander Greg Smith (5-10, 4.04 ERA) to the hill. Smith has lost his last three times out. He is truly undeserving of the poor record however, having been the victim of awful run support all year long. In fact, he goes into this game with an unusual 11-0 UNDER mark in night games, his team having lost those games by an average score of 2.4-3.3. With info like this on the table, not surprisingly, tonight’s contest is accompanied by a posted total of Under 7.5 (-135) at Sportsbook.com.

The Blue Jays will turn to ace-Halladay to stop the bleeding. He boasts a perfect mark against poor offensive teams of late: HALLADAY is 11-0 (+11.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Overall in ’08, Halladay is 12-8 with a WHIP of 1.040 and ERA of 2.85, all highly respectable numbers.

Toronto has also struggled offensively this season but did show signs of breaking out in a 3-game weekend series just completed in Texas. The Jays crossed the plate 18 times in those three games, though winning just the Saturday contest. For the season, Toronto is batting .259, and the combination of that average, today’s hefty price tag, and Smith’s decent ERA numbers mean that Toronto is in a historically awesome spot to play. The particular StatFox Super Situation of note reads as follows:

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, in the second half of the season.
(40-3 since 1997.) (93%, +34.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -188.3
The average score in these games was: Team 6, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +3.3)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2, +12.2 units).

With a winning percentage of 93% since ’97, and a +3.3 average run differential per game in those 43 contests, it’s hard to envision anything other than a comfortable win for Halladay and the Blue Jays.

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